Friday, April 6, 2007

Patience is a Virtue

The first week of the fantasy season is nearing an end and I'm sure you or other managers in the league are adding and dropping players like crazy. Your sleeper pick may be stumbling or your closer may have a blown a game already (thanks Jorge Julio), while a back of the rotation FA pitcher may have had a great day. Well don't get sucked into the opening week transaction frenzy. Sure, if someone drops Jered Weaver, such as someone from http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/58791, you can go grab, but don't impulse buy just because someone gets out of the gate slow. For the average batter, such as Shea Hillenbrand, wait a month or so to see if they have come out of their funk. If they haven't, start looking for FA's that you know for sure will be playing and producing in September and not a flameout like Chris Shelton in '06. For the star batter that is struggling, like Teixeira last year, you need to hold out on them until they start producing again, at which point you could even trade them so you get more value in return then you would have when the player was struggling. When it comes to SP, you need to be extra patient. There will always be some hot pitcher out there, who in April may outpitch a Carlos Zambrano, but then fall apart. Don't go grabbing Joe Smoe who is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA just because Haren got pounded the other day. For example, last year Carlos Zambrano struggled horribly in April last year and a manager in my league managed to drop him. I scooped him right up and he happened to almost win the Cy Young. As for RP, there are so many that you can afford to add/drop them more early and often then any other position because RP more than anyone else have ups and downs. For a month they might be hot, but then blow 4 saves in a week (look at Turnbow). That advice goes for RP on the hot seat especially. If Jorge Julio is struggling early, dump him for his replacement or a guy who looks like he will be a closer replacement on another team.

So heed this fantasy advice and don't fall into the trap that is first week add/dropping. It could ruin your season.

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